Juwan Johnson vs Dalton Kincaid
Who should you start in Week 10? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 10
Start Dalton Kincaid this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.3 projected points (11.1 vs 9.8).
Dalton Kincaid faces NYJ, the 1st-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Juwan Johnson faces CAR, the 17th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Juwan Johnson ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 10, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Juwan Johnson by 4.3 points of value over replacement (-8.9 vs -13.2), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Dalton Kincaid first (ADP 147.3 vs 154.5). If the model is right, Juwan Johnson is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Dalton Kincaid carries an injury flag of Questionable (Ankle), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Juwan JohnsonNOR | Dalton KincaidBUF | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 opponent | CAR | NYJ | |
| Projected Week 10 points | 9.8 | 11.1 | Kincaid +1.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 28) | #17 | #1 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 168.2 | 163.9 | Johnson +4.3 pts |
| Points per game | 9.9 | 9.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -8.9 | -13.2 | Johnson +4.3 |
| Overall rank | #84 | #88 | Johnson by 4 |
| Position rank | TE10 | TE11 | |
| Market ADP | 154.5 | 147.3 | Johnson +7.2 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | Rd 13 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 7 | |
| Injury flag | None | Questionable |
Should I start Juwan Johnson or Dalton Kincaid in Week 10?
Start Dalton Kincaid this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.3 projected points (11.1 vs 9.8).
Should I draft Juwan Johnson or Dalton Kincaid in 2026 fantasy football?
Juwan Johnson. He projects 168.2 fantasy points with -8.9 value over replacement, vs 163.9 points and -13.2 for Dalton Kincaid (TE, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.