Mike Evans vs D.J. Moore
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans D.J. Moore by 0.6 projected points (11.7 vs 11.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
D.J. Moore faces NE, the 2nd-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Mike Evans faces DEN, the 13th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Mike Evans ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Mike Evans: a clear but modest edge of 8.5 points of value over replacement (5.0 vs -3.5).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take D.J. Moore first (ADP 47.7 vs 57.9). If the model is right, Mike Evans is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Mike Evans carries an injury flag of Out (Ribs), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Mike EvansSFO | D.J. MooreBUF | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | DEN | NE | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 11.2 | 11.7 | Moore +0.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 32) | #13 | #2 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 185.3 | 176.8 | Evans +8.5 pts |
| Points per game | 10.9 | 10.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 5.0 | -3.5 | Evans +8.5 |
| Overall rank | #68 | #76 | Evans by 8 |
| Position rank | WR25 | WR27 | |
| Market ADP | 57.9 | 47.7 | Evans +10.2 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 5 | Rd 4 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 7 | |
| Injury flag | Out | None |
Should I start Mike Evans or D.J. Moore in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans D.J. Moore by 0.6 projected points (11.7 vs 11.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Mike Evans or D.J. Moore in 2026 fantasy football?
Mike Evans. He projects 185.3 fantasy points with 5.0 value over replacement, vs 176.8 points and -3.5 for D.J. Moore (WR, PPR).