Jaylen Waddle vs Mike Evans
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Mike Evans by 0.2 projected points (11.2 vs 11.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Mike Evans faces DEN, the 13th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Jaylen Waddle faces SF, the 18th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Jaylen Waddle ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Jaylen Waddle by 2.8 points of value over replacement (7.7 vs 5.0), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market agrees: Jaylen Waddle goes first at ADP 44.1 vs 57.9 for Mike Evans.
Health note: Mike Evans carries an injury flag of Out (Ribs), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Jaylen WaddleDEN | Mike EvansSFO | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | SF | DEN | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 11.0 | 11.2 | Evans +0.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 32) | #18 | #13 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 188.1 | 185.3 | Waddle +2.8 pts |
| Points per game | 11.1 | 10.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 7.7 | 5.0 | Waddle +2.8 |
| Overall rank | #64 | #68 | Waddle by 4 |
| Position rank | WR23 | WR25 | |
| Market ADP | 44.1 | 57.9 | Evans +13.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 4 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 8 | |
| Injury flag | None | Out |
Should I start Jaylen Waddle or Mike Evans in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Mike Evans by 0.2 projected points (11.2 vs 11.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Jaylen Waddle or Mike Evans in 2026 fantasy football?
Jaylen Waddle. He projects 188.1 fantasy points with 7.7 value over replacement, vs 185.3 points and 5.0 for Mike Evans (WR, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.