Courtland Sutton vs Luther Burden
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Luther Burden by 0.2 projected points (9.8 vs 9.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Luther Burden faces PHI, the 15th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Courtland Sutton faces LA, the 21st-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Courtland Sutton ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 3, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Courtland Sutton by 3.4 points of value over replacement (-8.9 vs -12.2), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Luther Burden first (ADP 50.6 vs 61.6). If the model is right, Courtland Sutton is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Courtland SuttonDEN | Luther BurdenCHI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | LA | PHI | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 9.6 | 9.8 | Burden +0.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 32) | #21 | #15 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 168.4 | 165.0 | Sutton +3.4 pts |
| Points per game | 9.9 | 9.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -8.9 | -12.2 | Sutton +3.4 |
| Overall rank | #84 | #88 | Sutton by 4 |
| Position rank | WR33 | WR36 | |
| Market ADP | 61.6 | 50.6 | Sutton +11.0 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 6 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 10 |
Should I start Courtland Sutton or Luther Burden in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Luther Burden by 0.2 projected points (9.8 vs 9.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Courtland Sutton or Luther Burden in 2026 fantasy football?
Courtland Sutton. He projects 168.4 fantasy points with -8.9 value over replacement, vs 165.0 points and -12.2 for Luther Burden (WR, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.