Jake Ferguson vs Colston Loveland
Who should you start in Week 7? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 7
Start Jake Ferguson this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.3 projected points (9.7 vs 7.4).
Jake Ferguson faces PHI, the 3rd-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Colston Loveland faces NE, the 22nd-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Jake Ferguson, and it isn't close: 16.9 points of value over replacement separate them (-41.5 vs -58.3).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Colston Loveland first (ADP 54.0 vs 137.4). If the model is right, Jake Ferguson is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Jake FergusonDAL | Colston LovelandCHI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 7 opponent | PHI | NE | |
| Projected Week 7 points | 9.7 | 7.4 | Ferguson +2.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 28) | #3 | #22 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 150.8 | 134.0 | Ferguson +16.9 pts |
| Points per game | 8.9 | 7.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -41.5 | -58.3 | Ferguson +16.9 |
| Overall rank | #119 | #141 | Ferguson by 22 |
| Position rank | TE19 | TE22 | |
| Market ADP | 137.4 | 54.0 | Ferguson +83.4 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 12 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 14 | 10 |
Should I start Jake Ferguson or Colston Loveland in Week 7?
Start Jake Ferguson this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.3 projected points (9.7 vs 7.4).
Should I draft Jake Ferguson or Colston Loveland in 2026 fantasy football?
Jake Ferguson. He projects 150.8 fantasy points with -41.5 value over replacement, vs 134.0 points and -58.3 for Colston Loveland (TE, PPR).