C.J. Stroud vs Patrick Mahomes
Who should you start in Week 7? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 7
Start C.J. Stroud this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.3 projected points (18.8 vs 16.5).
C.J. Stroud faces NYG, the 2nd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Patrick Mahomes faces SEA, the 21st-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans C.J. Stroud by 1.4 points of value over replacement (-5.2 vs -6.7), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Patrick Mahomes first (ADP 104.0 vs 155.7). If the model is right, C.J. Stroud is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| C.J. StroudHOU | Patrick MahomesKAN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 7 opponent | NYG | SEA | |
| Projected Week 7 points | 18.8 | 16.5 | Stroud +2.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 28) | #2 | #21 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 287.7 | 286.2 | Stroud +1.4 pts |
| Points per game | 16.9 | 16.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -5.2 | -6.7 | Stroud +1.4 |
| Overall rank | #77 | #78 | Stroud by 1 |
| Position rank | QB14 | QB15 | |
| Market ADP | 155.7 | 104.0 | Stroud +51.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 5 |
Should I start C.J. Stroud or Patrick Mahomes in Week 7?
Start C.J. Stroud this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.3 projected points (18.8 vs 16.5).
Should I draft C.J. Stroud or Patrick Mahomes in 2026 fantasy football?
C.J. Stroud. He projects 287.7 fantasy points with -5.2 value over replacement, vs 286.2 points and -6.7 for Patrick Mahomes (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.