Joe Burrow vs C.J. Stroud
Who should you start in Week 7? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 7
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Joe Burrow by 0.1 projected points (18.9 vs 18.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Joe Burrow faces BAL, the 4th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. C.J. Stroud faces NYG, the 2nd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Joe Burrow: a clear but modest edge of 8.4 points of value over replacement (3.2 vs -5.2).
The draft market agrees: Joe Burrow goes first at ADP 54.5 vs 155.7 for C.J. Stroud.
| Joe BurrowCIN | C.J. StroudHOU | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 7 opponent | BAL | NYG | |
| Projected Week 7 points | 18.9 | 18.8 | Burrow +0.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 28) | #4 | #2 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 296.1 | 287.7 | Burrow +8.4 pts |
| Points per game | 17.4 | 16.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 3.2 | -5.2 | Burrow +8.4 |
| Overall rank | #69 | #77 | Burrow by 8 |
| Position rank | QB11 | QB14 | |
| Market ADP | 54.5 | 155.7 | Stroud +101.2 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 5 | Rd 13 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 8 |
Should I start Joe Burrow or C.J. Stroud in Week 7?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Joe Burrow by 0.1 projected points (18.9 vs 18.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Joe Burrow or C.J. Stroud in 2026 fantasy football?
Joe Burrow. He projects 296.1 fantasy points with 3.2 value over replacement, vs 287.7 points and -5.2 for C.J. Stroud (QB, PPR).