George Kittle vs Brock Bowers
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start George Kittle this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.4 projected points (14.7 vs 13.3).
George Kittle faces DEN, the 20th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Brock Bowers faces KC, the 28th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes George Kittle: a clear but modest edge of 9.6 points of value over replacement (58.9 vs 49.3).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Brock Bowers first (ADP 34.5 vs 88.6). If the model is right, George Kittle is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| George KittleSFO | Brock BowersLVR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | DEN | KC | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 14.7 | 13.3 | Kittle +1.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #20 | #28 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 256.5 | 246.9 | Kittle +9.6 pts |
| Points per game | 15.1 | 14.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 58.9 | 49.3 | Kittle +9.6 |
| Overall rank | #23 | #32 | Kittle by 9 |
| Position rank | TE2 | TE3 | |
| Market ADP | 88.6 | 34.5 | Kittle +54.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 3 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 13 |
Should I start George Kittle or Brock Bowers in Week 4?
Start George Kittle this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.4 projected points (14.7 vs 13.3).
Should I draft George Kittle or Brock Bowers in 2026 fantasy football?
George Kittle. He projects 256.5 fantasy points with 58.9 value over replacement, vs 246.9 points and 49.3 for Brock Bowers (TE, PPR).