Brian Thomas vs Courtland Sutton
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
The call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Brian Thomas by 0.4 points of value over replacement (-4.6 vs -5.0), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Courtland Sutton first (ADP 59.6 vs 72.5). If the model is right, Brian Thomas is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Brian ThomasJAX | Courtland SuttonDEN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 168.1 | 167.8 | Thomas +0.4 pts |
| Points per game | 9.9 | 9.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -4.6 | -5.0 | Thomas +0.4 |
| Overall rank | #79 | #82 | Thomas by 3 |
| Position rank | WR29 | WR32 | |
| Market ADP | 72.5 | 59.6 | Thomas +12.9 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 6 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 10 |
Should I draft Brian Thomas or Courtland Sutton in 2026 fantasy football?
Brian Thomas. He projects 168.1 fantasy points with -4.6 value over replacement, vs 167.8 points and -5.0 for Courtland Sutton (WR, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.