Brian Thomas vs Courtland Sutton
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Brian Thomas by 0.9 projected points (10.4 vs 9.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Brian Thomas faces PHI, the 16th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Courtland Sutton faces LAC, the 24th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Brian Thomas: a clear but modest edge of 5.6 points of value over replacement (-4.1 vs -9.6).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Courtland Sutton first (ADP 61.6 vs 74.9). If the model is right, Brian Thomas is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Brian ThomasJAX | Courtland SuttonDEN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | PHI | LAC | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 10.4 | 9.5 | Thomas +0.9 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 30) | #16 | #24 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 173.9 | 168.4 | Thomas +5.6 pts |
| Points per game | 10.2 | 9.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -4.1 | -9.6 | Thomas +5.6 |
| Overall rank | #79 | #84 | Thomas by 5 |
| Position rank | WR30 | WR33 | |
| Market ADP | 74.9 | 61.6 | Thomas +13.3 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 6 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 10 |
Should I start Brian Thomas or Courtland Sutton in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Brian Thomas by 0.9 projected points (10.4 vs 9.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Brian Thomas or Courtland Sutton in 2026 fantasy football?
Brian Thomas. He projects 173.9 fantasy points with -4.1 value over replacement, vs 168.4 points and -9.6 for Courtland Sutton (WR, PPR).