Michael Wilson vs Brian Thomas
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Brian Thomas by 0.1 projected points (10.4 vs 10.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Brian Thomas faces PHI, the 16th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Michael Wilson faces DET, the 20th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Michael Wilson ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Michael Wilson by 0.0 points of value over replacement (-4.1 vs -4.1), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Brian Thomas first (ADP 74.9 vs 76.1). If the model is right, Michael Wilson is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Michael WilsonARI | Brian ThomasJAX | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | DET | PHI | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 10.3 | 10.4 | Thomas +0.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 30) | #20 | #16 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 173.9 | 173.9 | Even |
| Points per game | 10.2 | 10.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -4.1 | -4.1 | Even |
| Overall rank | #78 | #79 | Wilson by 1 |
| Position rank | WR29 | WR30 | |
| Market ADP | 76.1 | 74.9 | Wilson +1.2 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 14 | 7 |
Should I start Michael Wilson or Brian Thomas in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Brian Thomas by 0.1 projected points (10.4 vs 10.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Michael Wilson or Brian Thomas in 2026 fantasy football?
Michael Wilson. He projects 173.9 fantasy points with -4.1 value over replacement, vs 173.9 points and -4.1 for Brian Thomas (WR, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.