D.K. Metcalf vs Michael Wilson
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Michael Wilson by 0.3 projected points (9.6 vs 9.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Michael Wilson faces SF, the 22nd-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. D.K. Metcalf faces CIN, the 28th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks D.K. Metcalf ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 3, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans D.K. Metcalf by 2.3 points of value over replacement (-6.2 vs -8.4), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market agrees: D.K. Metcalf goes first at ADP 63.9 vs 76.1 for Michael Wilson.
| D.K. MetcalfPIT | Michael WilsonARI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | CIN | SF | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 9.3 | 9.6 | Wilson +0.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 32) | #28 | #22 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 172.3 | 170.0 | Metcalf +2.3 pts |
| Points per game | 10.1 | 10.0 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -6.2 | -8.4 | Metcalf +2.3 |
| Overall rank | #80 | #83 | Metcalf by 3 |
| Position rank | WR31 | WR33 | |
| Market ADP | 63.9 | 76.1 | Wilson +12.2 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 6 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 9 | 14 |
Should I start D.K. Metcalf or Michael Wilson in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Michael Wilson by 0.3 projected points (9.6 vs 9.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft D.K. Metcalf or Michael Wilson in 2026 fantasy football?
D.K. Metcalf. He projects 172.3 fantasy points with -6.2 value over replacement, vs 170.0 points and -8.4 for Michael Wilson (WR, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.