Brian Thomas vs D.K. Metcalf
Who should you start in Week 10? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 10
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Brian Thomas by 1.0 projected points (11.1 vs 10.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Brian Thomas faces TEN, the 5th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. D.K. Metcalf faces CIN, the 15th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Brian Thomas by 1.6 points of value over replacement (-3.2 vs -4.8), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take D.K. Metcalf first (ADP 63.9 vs 74.9). If the model is right, Brian Thomas is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Brian ThomasJAX | D.K. MetcalfPIT | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 opponent | TEN | CIN | |
| Projected Week 10 points | 11.1 | 10.2 | Thomas +1.0 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 28) | #5 | #15 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 173.9 | 172.3 | Thomas +1.6 pts |
| Points per game | 10.2 | 10.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -3.2 | -4.8 | Thomas +1.6 |
| Overall rank | #78 | #80 | Thomas by 2 |
| Position rank | WR24 | WR26 | |
| Market ADP | 74.9 | 63.9 | Thomas +11.0 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 6 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 9 |
Should I start Brian Thomas or D.K. Metcalf in Week 10?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Brian Thomas by 1.0 projected points (11.1 vs 10.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Brian Thomas or D.K. Metcalf in 2026 fantasy football?
Brian Thomas. He projects 173.9 fantasy points with -3.2 value over replacement, vs 172.3 points and -4.8 for D.K. Metcalf (WR, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.