Alec Pierce vs Josh Downs
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Alec Pierce by 0.8 projected points (10.3 vs 9.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Both face PIT, the 6th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Alec Pierce: a clear but modest edge of 12.5 points of value over replacement (-15.3 vs -27.8).
The draft market agrees: Alec Pierce goes first at ADP 69.7 vs 94.8 for Josh Downs.
Health note: Alec Pierce carries an injury flag of IR (Heel), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Alec PierceIND | Josh DownsIND | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | PIT | PIT | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 10.3 | 9.5 | Pierce +0.8 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 30) | #6 | #6 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 162.7 | 150.2 | Pierce +12.5 pts |
| Points per game | 9.6 | 8.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -15.3 | -27.8 | Pierce +12.5 |
| Overall rank | #92 | #101 | Pierce by 9 |
| Position rank | WR38 | WR41 | |
| Market ADP | 69.7 | 94.8 | Downs +25.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 6 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 13 | |
| Injury flag | IR | None |
Should I start Alec Pierce or Josh Downs in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Alec Pierce by 0.8 projected points (10.3 vs 9.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Alec Pierce or Josh Downs in 2026 fantasy football?
Alec Pierce. He projects 162.7 fantasy points with -15.3 value over replacement, vs 150.2 points and -27.8 for Josh Downs (WR, PPR).