Tetairoa McMillan vs Rashee Rice
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Rashee Rice by 0.7 projected points (13.1 vs 12.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Rashee Rice faces MIA, the 8th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Tetairoa McMillan faces CLE, the 16th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Tetairoa McMillan ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 3, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Tetairoa McMillan by 2.7 points of value over replacement (32.2 vs 29.4), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Rashee Rice first (ADP 17.2 vs 31.5). If the model is right, Tetairoa McMillan is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Tetairoa McMillanCAR | Rashee RiceKAN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | CLE | MIA | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 12.4 | 13.1 | Rice +0.7 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 32) | #16 | #8 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 210.6 | 207.9 | McMillan +2.7 pts |
| Points per game | 12.4 | 12.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 32.2 | 29.4 | McMillan +2.7 |
| Overall rank | #43 | #48 | McMillan by 5 |
| Position rank | WR14 | WR17 | |
| Market ADP | 31.5 | 17.2 | McMillan +14.3 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 3 | Rd 2 | |
| Bye week | 5 | 5 |
Should I start Tetairoa McMillan or Rashee Rice in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Rashee Rice by 0.7 projected points (13.1 vs 12.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Tetairoa McMillan or Rashee Rice in 2026 fantasy football?
Tetairoa McMillan. He projects 210.6 fantasy points with 32.2 value over replacement, vs 207.9 points and 29.4 for Rashee Rice (WR, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.