Tetairoa McMillan vs Rashee Rice
Who should you start in Week 10? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 10
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Rashee Rice by 0.2 projected points (13.4 vs 13.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Rashee Rice faces ATL, the 4th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Tetairoa McMillan faces NO, the 12th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Tetairoa McMillan ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 10, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Tetairoa McMillan: a clear but modest edge of 8.6 points of value over replacement (37.2 vs 28.5).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Rashee Rice first (ADP 17.2 vs 31.5). If the model is right, Tetairoa McMillan is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Tetairoa McMillanCAR | Rashee RiceKAN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 opponent | NO | ATL | |
| Projected Week 10 points | 13.1 | 13.4 | Rice +0.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 28) | #12 | #4 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 214.3 | 205.6 | McMillan +8.6 pts |
| Points per game | 12.6 | 12.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 37.2 | 28.5 | McMillan +8.6 |
| Overall rank | #40 | #45 | McMillan by 5 |
| Position rank | WR13 | WR16 | |
| Market ADP | 31.5 | 17.2 | McMillan +14.3 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 3 | Rd 2 | |
| Bye week | 5 | 5 |
Should I start Tetairoa McMillan or Rashee Rice in Week 10?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Rashee Rice by 0.2 projected points (13.4 vs 13.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Tetairoa McMillan or Rashee Rice in 2026 fantasy football?
Tetairoa McMillan. He projects 214.3 fantasy points with 37.2 value over replacement, vs 205.6 points and 28.5 for Rashee Rice (WR, PPR).