Justin Jefferson vs Tetairoa McMillan
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
Start Justin Jefferson this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.6 projected points (15.2 vs 12.6).
Justin Jefferson faces TB, the 5th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Tetairoa McMillan faces CLE, the 16th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Justin Jefferson, and it isn't close: 21.7 points of value over replacement separate them (58.7 vs 37.1).
The draft market agrees: Justin Jefferson goes first at ADP 11.8 vs 31.5 for Tetairoa McMillan.
| Justin JeffersonMIN | Tetairoa McMillanCAR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | TB | CLE | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 15.2 | 12.6 | Jefferson +2.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 32) | #5 | #16 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 235.9 | 214.3 | Jefferson +21.7 pts |
| Points per game | 13.9 | 12.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 58.7 | 37.1 | Jefferson +21.7 |
| Overall rank | #29 | #42 | Jefferson by 13 |
| Position rank | WR10 | WR13 | |
| Market ADP | 11.8 | 31.5 | McMillan +19.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 1 | Rd 3 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 5 |
Should I start Justin Jefferson or Tetairoa McMillan in Week 3?
Start Justin Jefferson this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.6 projected points (15.2 vs 12.6).
Should I draft Justin Jefferson or Tetairoa McMillan in 2026 fantasy football?
Justin Jefferson. He projects 235.9 fantasy points with 58.7 value over replacement, vs 214.3 points and 37.1 for Tetairoa McMillan (WR, PPR).