Justin Jefferson vs Zay Flowers
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Justin Jefferson by 0.5 projected points (14.1 vs 13.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Justin Jefferson faces NO, the 18th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Zay Flowers faces ATL, the 22nd-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Justin Jefferson: a clear but modest edge of 5.7 points of value over replacement (57.5 vs 51.8).
The draft market agrees: Justin Jefferson goes first at ADP 11.8 vs 24.8 for Zay Flowers.
| Justin JeffersonMIN | Zay FlowersBAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | NO | ATL | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 14.1 | 13.5 | Jefferson +0.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 30) | #18 | #22 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 235.9 | 230.3 | Jefferson +5.7 pts |
| Points per game | 13.9 | 13.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 57.5 | 51.8 | Jefferson +5.7 |
| Overall rank | #29 | #35 | Jefferson by 6 |
| Position rank | WR10 | WR12 | |
| Market ADP | 11.8 | 24.8 | Flowers +13.0 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 1 | Rd 2 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 13 |
Should I start Justin Jefferson or Zay Flowers in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Justin Jefferson by 0.5 projected points (14.1 vs 13.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Justin Jefferson or Zay Flowers in 2026 fantasy football?
Justin Jefferson. He projects 235.9 fantasy points with 57.5 value over replacement, vs 230.3 points and 51.8 for Zay Flowers (WR, PPR).