Keenan Allen vs Jalen Nailor
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Keenan Allen by 0.4 projected points (5.5 vs 5.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Keenan Allen faces SEA, the 28th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Jalen Nailor faces KC, the 29th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Keenan Allen: a clear but modest edge of 8.1 points of value over replacement (-76.3 vs -84.5).
The draft market agrees: Keenan Allen goes first at ADP 139.4 vs 154.4 for Jalen Nailor.
Health note: Keenan Allen carries an injury flag of Out (Groin), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Keenan AllenLAC | Jalen NailorLVR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | SEA | KC | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 5.5 | 5.0 | Allen +0.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 32) | #28 | #29 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 102.1 | 94.0 | Allen +8.1 pts |
| Points per game | 6.0 | 5.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -76.3 | -84.5 | Allen +8.1 |
| Overall rank | #155 | #161 | Allen by 6 |
| Position rank | WR64 | WR67 | |
| Market ADP | 139.4 | 154.4 | Nailor +15.0 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 12 | Rd 13 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 13 | |
| Injury flag | Out | None |
Should I start Keenan Allen or Jalen Nailor in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Keenan Allen by 0.4 projected points (5.5 vs 5.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Keenan Allen or Jalen Nailor in 2026 fantasy football?
Keenan Allen. He projects 102.1 fantasy points with -76.3 value over replacement, vs 94.0 points and -84.5 for Jalen Nailor (WR, PPR).