Jalen Hurts vs Sam Darnold
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jalen Hurts by 0.7 projected points (14.9 vs 14.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Jalen Hurts faces JAX, the 17th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Sam Darnold faces SF, the 18th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Jalen Hurts: a clear but modest edge of 9.9 points of value over replacement (-32.9 vs -42.8).
The draft market agrees: Jalen Hurts goes first at ADP 75.9 vs 144.4 for Sam Darnold.
| Jalen HurtsPHI | Sam DarnoldSEA | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | JAX | SF | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 14.9 | 14.2 | Hurts +0.7 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #17 | #18 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 252.4 | 242.5 | Hurts +9.9 pts |
| Points per game | 14.8 | 14.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -32.9 | -42.8 | Hurts +9.9 |
| Overall rank | #110 | #121 | Hurts by 11 |
| Position rank | QB19 | QB22 | |
| Market ADP | 75.9 | 144.4 | Darnold +68.5 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 12 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 11 |
Should I start Jalen Hurts or Sam Darnold in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jalen Hurts by 0.7 projected points (14.9 vs 14.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Jalen Hurts or Sam Darnold in 2026 fantasy football?
Jalen Hurts. He projects 252.4 fantasy points with -32.9 value over replacement, vs 242.5 points and -42.8 for Sam Darnold (QB, PPR).