Tony Pollard vs J.K. Dobbins
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Tony Pollard by 0.1 projected points (7.3 vs 7.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Tony Pollard faces HOU, the 29th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. J.K. Dobbins faces LAC, the 24th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Tony Pollard: a clear but modest edge of 10.8 points of value over replacement (0.0 vs -10.8).
The draft market agrees: Tony Pollard goes first at ADP 69.7 vs 85.5 for J.K. Dobbins.
| Tony PollardTEN | J.K. DobbinsDEN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | HOU | LAC | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 7.3 | 7.1 | Pollard +0.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 30) | #29 | #24 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 136.6 | 125.8 | Pollard +10.8 pts |
| Points per game | 8.0 | 7.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 0.0 | -10.8 | Pollard +10.8 |
| Overall rank | #72 | #86 | Pollard by 14 |
| Position rank | RB30 | RB31 | |
| Market ADP | 69.7 | 85.5 | Dobbins +15.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 6 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 9 | 10 |
Should I start Tony Pollard or J.K. Dobbins in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Tony Pollard by 0.1 projected points (7.3 vs 7.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Tony Pollard or J.K. Dobbins in 2026 fantasy football?
Tony Pollard. He projects 136.6 fantasy points with 0.0 value over replacement, vs 125.8 points and -10.8 for J.K. Dobbins (RB, PPR).