Mike Gesicki vs Dawson Knox
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Mike Gesicki by 0.4 projected points (5.5 vs 5.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Mike Gesicki faces JAX, the 4th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Dawson Knox faces NE, the 9th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Mike Gesicki by 0.6 points of value over replacement (-96.0 vs -96.7), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Mike GesickiCIN | Dawson KnoxBUF | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | JAX | NE | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 5.5 | 5.1 | Gesicki +0.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #4 | #9 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 82.4 | 81.8 | Gesicki +0.6 pts |
| Points per game | 4.8 | 4.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -96.0 | -96.7 | Gesicki +0.6 |
| Overall rank | #197 | #198 | Gesicki by 1 |
| Position rank | TE27 | TE28 | |
| Market ADP | - | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | - | |
| Bye week | 6 | 7 |
Should I start Mike Gesicki or Dawson Knox in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Mike Gesicki by 0.4 projected points (5.5 vs 5.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Mike Gesicki or Dawson Knox in 2026 fantasy football?
Mike Gesicki. He projects 82.4 fantasy points with -96.0 value over replacement, vs 81.8 points and -96.7 for Dawson Knox (TE, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.