Dawson Knox vs Cole Kmet
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Dawson Knox by 0.8 projected points (5.6 vs 4.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Dawson Knox faces LAC, the 4th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Cole Kmet faces PHI, the 19th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Dawson Knox by 2.0 points of value over replacement (-93.3 vs -95.3), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Dawson KnoxBUF | Cole KmetCHI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | LAC | PHI | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 5.6 | 4.8 | Knox +0.8 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #4 | #19 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 85.2 | 83.2 | Knox +2.0 pts |
| Points per game | 5.0 | 4.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -93.3 | -95.3 | Knox +2.0 |
| Overall rank | #185 | #196 | Knox by 11 |
| Position rank | TE27 | TE28 | |
| Market ADP | - | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | - | |
| Bye week | 7 | 10 |
Should I start Dawson Knox or Cole Kmet in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Dawson Knox by 0.8 projected points (5.6 vs 4.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Dawson Knox or Cole Kmet in 2026 fantasy football?
Dawson Knox. He projects 85.2 fantasy points with -93.3 value over replacement, vs 83.2 points and -95.3 for Cole Kmet (TE, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.