Deebo Samuel vs Chris Godwin
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Chris Godwin by 0.3 projected points (8.9 vs 8.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Chris Godwin faces DAL, the 3rd-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Deebo Samuel faces NYG, the 15th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Deebo Samuel ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Deebo Samuel: a clear but modest edge of 6.5 points of value over replacement (-34.2 vs -40.7).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Chris Godwin first (ADP 77.4 vs 115.4). If the model is right, Deebo Samuel is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Deebo Samuel carries an injury flag of Out (Hamstring), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Deebo SamuelWAS | Chris GodwinTAM | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | NYG | DAL | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 8.7 | 8.9 | Godwin +0.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 30) | #15 | #3 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 144.2 | 137.7 | Samuel +6.5 pts |
| Points per game | 8.5 | 8.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -34.2 | -40.7 | Samuel +6.5 |
| Overall rank | #109 | #116 | Samuel by 7 |
| Position rank | WR46 | WR49 | |
| Market ADP | 115.4 | 77.4 | Samuel +38.0 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 10 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 10 | |
| Injury flag | Out | None |
Should I start Deebo Samuel or Chris Godwin in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Chris Godwin by 0.3 projected points (8.9 vs 8.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Deebo Samuel or Chris Godwin in 2026 fantasy football?
Deebo Samuel. He projects 144.2 fantasy points with -34.2 value over replacement, vs 137.7 points and -40.7 for Chris Godwin (WR, PPR).