Brian Thomas vs Stefon Diggs
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Stefon Diggs by 0.2 projected points (10.4 vs 10.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Stefon Diggs faces LV, the 8th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Brian Thomas faces PHI, the 16th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Brian Thomas ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Brian Thomas by 3.8 points of value over replacement (-6.7 vs -10.5), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market agrees: Brian Thomas goes first at ADP 74.9 vs 96.8 for Stefon Diggs.
Health note: Stefon Diggs carries an injury flag of Out (Hamstring), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Brian ThomasJAX | Stefon DiggsNWE | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | PHI | LV | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 10.3 | 10.4 | Diggs +0.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 30) | #16 | #8 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 171.7 | 167.9 | Thomas +3.8 pts |
| Points per game | 10.1 | 9.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -6.7 | -10.5 | Thomas +3.8 |
| Overall rank | #81 | #85 | Thomas by 4 |
| Position rank | WR31 | WR34 | |
| Market ADP | 74.9 | 96.8 | Diggs +21.9 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 11 | |
| Injury flag | None | Out |
Should I start Brian Thomas or Stefon Diggs in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Stefon Diggs by 0.2 projected points (10.4 vs 10.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Brian Thomas or Stefon Diggs in 2026 fantasy football?
Brian Thomas. He projects 171.7 fantasy points with -6.7 value over replacement, vs 167.9 points and -10.5 for Stefon Diggs (WR, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.