Brenton Strange vs Jake Ferguson
Who should you start in Week 6? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 6
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jake Ferguson by 0.6 projected points (10.4 vs 9.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Jake Ferguson faces GB, the 5th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Brenton Strange faces HOU, the 14th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Brenton Strange ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 6, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Brenton Strange by 1.5 points of value over replacement (-25.7 vs -27.2), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Jake Ferguson first (ADP 137.4 vs 162.8). If the model is right, Brenton Strange is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Brenton StrangeJAX | Jake FergusonDAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 opponent | HOU | GB | |
| Projected Week 6 points | 9.9 | 10.4 | Ferguson +0.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 28) | #14 | #5 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 167.1 | 165.6 | Strange +1.5 pts |
| Points per game | 9.8 | 9.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -25.7 | -27.2 | Strange +1.5 |
| Overall rank | #106 | #108 | Strange by 2 |
| Position rank | TE13 | TE14 | |
| Market ADP | 162.8 | 137.4 | Strange +25.4 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 14 | Rd 12 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 14 |
Should I start Brenton Strange or Jake Ferguson in Week 6?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jake Ferguson by 0.6 projected points (10.4 vs 9.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Brenton Strange or Jake Ferguson in 2026 fantasy football?
Brenton Strange. He projects 167.1 fantasy points with -25.7 value over replacement, vs 165.6 points and -27.2 for Jake Ferguson (TE, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.