Kaelon Black vs Audric Estime
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Kaelon Black by 0.2 projected points (2.7 vs 2.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Kaelon Black faces SEA, the 21st-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Audric Estime faces MIN, the 28th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Kaelon Black by 0.7 points of value over replacement (-89.6 vs -90.2), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Kaelon BlackSFO | Audric EstimeNOR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | SEA | MIN | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 2.7 | 2.6 | Black +0.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 30) | #21 | #28 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 47.0 | 46.3 | Black +0.7 pts |
| Points per game | 2.8 | 2.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -89.6 | -90.2 | Black +0.7 |
| Overall rank | #165 | #169 | Black by 4 |
| Position rank | RB54 | RB57 | |
| Market ADP | 166.2 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 14 | - | |
| Bye week | 8 | 8 |
Should I start Kaelon Black or Audric Estime in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Kaelon Black by 0.2 projected points (2.7 vs 2.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Kaelon Black or Audric Estime in 2026 fantasy football?
Kaelon Black. He projects 47.0 fantasy points with -89.6 value over replacement, vs 46.3 points and -90.2 for Audric Estime (RB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.