Ashton Jeanty vs Chase Brown
Who should you start in Week 10? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 10
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Chase Brown by 0.5 projected points (13.9 vs 13.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Chase Brown faces PIT, the 4th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Ashton Jeanty faces SEA, the 26th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Ashton Jeanty ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 10, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Ashton Jeanty, and it isn't close: 42.5 points of value over replacement separate them (111.2 vs 68.7).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Chase Brown first (ADP 13.1 vs 21.0). If the model is right, Ashton Jeanty is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Ashton JeantyLVR | Chase BrownCIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 opponent | SEA | PIT | |
| Projected Week 10 points | 13.4 | 13.9 | Brown +0.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 28) | #26 | #4 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 257.9 | 215.4 | Jeanty +42.5 pts |
| Points per game | 15.2 | 12.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 111.2 | 68.7 | Jeanty +42.5 |
| Overall rank | #18 | #24 | Jeanty by 6 |
| Position rank | RB14 | RB16 | |
| Market ADP | 21.0 | 13.1 | Jeanty +7.9 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 2 | Rd 2 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 6 |
Should I start Ashton Jeanty or Chase Brown in Week 10?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Chase Brown by 0.5 projected points (13.9 vs 13.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Ashton Jeanty or Chase Brown in 2026 fantasy football?
Ashton Jeanty. He projects 257.9 fantasy points with 111.2 value over replacement, vs 215.4 points and 68.7 for Chase Brown (RB, PPR).