Ty Johnson vs Antonio Gibson
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Ty Johnson by 0.4 projected points (2.7 vs 2.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Ty Johnson faces LAC, the 3rd-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Antonio Gibson faces JAX, the 20th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Ty Johnson by 0.6 points of value over replacement (-95.0 vs -95.7), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
Health note: Antonio Gibson carries an injury flag of Questionable (Knee - ACL), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Ty JohnsonBUF | Antonio GibsonNWE | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | LAC | JAX | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 2.7 | 2.3 | Johnson +0.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 32) | #3 | #20 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 41.5 | 40.9 | Johnson +0.6 pts |
| Points per game | 2.4 | 2.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -95.0 | -95.7 | Johnson +0.6 |
| Overall rank | #194 | #199 | Johnson by 5 |
| Position rank | RB73 | RB76 | |
| Market ADP | - | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | - | |
| Bye week | 7 | 11 | |
| Injury flag | None | Questionable |
Should I start Ty Johnson or Antonio Gibson in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Ty Johnson by 0.4 projected points (2.7 vs 2.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Ty Johnson or Antonio Gibson in 2026 fantasy football?
Ty Johnson. He projects 41.5 fantasy points with -95.0 value over replacement, vs 40.9 points and -95.7 for Antonio Gibson (RB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.