Michael Wilson vs Alec Pierce
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Alec Pierce by 0.7 projected points (10.3 vs 9.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Alec Pierce faces HOU, the 10th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Michael Wilson faces SF, the 22nd-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Michael Wilson ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 3, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Michael Wilson by 2.1 points of value over replacement (-8.4 vs -10.5), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Alec Pierce first (ADP 69.7 vs 76.1). If the model is right, Michael Wilson is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Alec Pierce carries an injury flag of Out (Heel), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Michael WilsonARI | Alec PierceIND | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | SF | HOU | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 9.6 | 10.3 | Pierce +0.7 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 32) | #22 | #10 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 170.0 | 167.9 | Wilson +2.1 pts |
| Points per game | 10.0 | 9.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -8.4 | -10.5 | Wilson +2.1 |
| Overall rank | #83 | #87 | Wilson by 4 |
| Position rank | WR33 | WR35 | |
| Market ADP | 76.1 | 69.7 | Wilson +6.4 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 6 | |
| Bye week | 14 | 13 | |
| Injury flag | None | Out |
Should I start Michael Wilson or Alec Pierce in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Alec Pierce by 0.7 projected points (10.3 vs 9.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Michael Wilson or Alec Pierce in 2026 fantasy football?
Michael Wilson. He projects 170.0 fantasy points with -8.4 value over replacement, vs 167.9 points and -10.5 for Alec Pierce (WR, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.