Michael Wilson vs Alec Pierce
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
The call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Michael Wilson by 0.1 points of value over replacement (-4.8 vs -4.8), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Alec Pierce first (ADP 55.3 vs 88.6). If the model is right, Michael Wilson is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Alec Pierce carries an injury flag of PUP (Ankle), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Michael WilsonARI | Alec PierceIND | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 168.0 | 167.9 | Wilson +0.1 pts |
| Points per game | 9.9 | 9.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -4.8 | -4.8 | Wilson +0.1 |
| Overall rank | #80 | #81 | Wilson by 1 |
| Position rank | WR30 | WR31 | |
| Market ADP | 88.6 | 55.3 | Wilson +33.3 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 14 | 13 | |
| Injury flag | None | PUP |
Should I draft Michael Wilson or Alec Pierce in 2026 fantasy football?
Michael Wilson. He projects 168.0 fantasy points with -4.8 value over replacement, vs 167.9 points and -4.8 for Alec Pierce (WR, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.