AJ Barner vs Dawson Knox
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans AJ Barner by 0.2 projected points (5.5 vs 5.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
AJ Barner faces LAC, the 10th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Dawson Knox faces NE, the 9th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes AJ Barner: a clear but modest edge of 5.3 points of value over replacement (-88.0 vs -93.3).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| AJ BarnerSEA | Dawson KnoxBUF | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | LAC | NE | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 5.5 | 5.3 | Barner +0.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #10 | #9 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 90.4 | 85.2 | Barner +5.3 pts |
| Points per game | 5.3 | 5.0 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -88.0 | -93.3 | Barner +5.3 |
| Overall rank | #167 | #185 | Barner by 18 |
| Position rank | TE25 | TE27 | |
| Market ADP | - | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | - | |
| Bye week | 11 | 7 |
Should I start AJ Barner or Dawson Knox in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans AJ Barner by 0.2 projected points (5.5 vs 5.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft AJ Barner or Dawson Knox in 2026 fantasy football?
AJ Barner. He projects 90.4 fantasy points with -88.0 value over replacement, vs 85.2 points and -93.3 for Dawson Knox (TE, PPR).