Patrick Mahomes vs Aaron Rodgers
Who should you start in Week 7? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 7
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Aaron Rodgers by 0.0 projected points (16.6 vs 16.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Aaron Rodgers faces NO, the 19th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Patrick Mahomes faces SEA, the 21st-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Patrick Mahomes ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 7, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Patrick Mahomes by 2.5 points of value over replacement (-6.7 vs -9.2), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market agrees: Patrick Mahomes goes first at ADP 104.0 vs 183.1 for Aaron Rodgers.
| Patrick MahomesKAN | Aaron RodgersPIT | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 7 opponent | SEA | NO | |
| Projected Week 7 points | 16.5 | 16.6 | Even |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 28) | #21 | #19 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 286.2 | 283.7 | Mahomes +2.5 pts |
| Points per game | 16.8 | 16.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -6.7 | -9.2 | Mahomes +2.5 |
| Overall rank | #78 | #81 | Mahomes by 3 |
| Position rank | QB15 | QB16 | |
| Market ADP | 104.0 | 183.1 | Rodgers +79.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 16 | |
| Bye week | 5 | 9 |
Should I start Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers in Week 7?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Aaron Rodgers by 0.0 projected points (16.6 vs 16.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers in 2026 fantasy football?
Patrick Mahomes. He projects 286.2 fantasy points with -6.7 value over replacement, vs 283.7 points and -9.2 for Aaron Rodgers (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.