J.K. Dobbins vs Aaron Jones
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans J.K. Dobbins by 0.5 projected points (7.1 vs 6.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
J.K. Dobbins faces LAC, the 24th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Aaron Jones faces NO, the 14th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes J.K. Dobbins, and it isn't close: 15.8 points of value over replacement separate them (-10.8 vs -26.6).
The draft market agrees: J.K. Dobbins goes first at ADP 85.5 vs 101.6 for Aaron Jones.
| J.K. DobbinsDEN | Aaron JonesMIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | LAC | NO | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 7.1 | 6.6 | Dobbins +0.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 30) | #24 | #14 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 125.8 | 110.0 | Dobbins +15.8 pts |
| Points per game | 7.4 | 6.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -10.8 | -26.6 | Dobbins +15.8 |
| Overall rank | #87 | #101 | Dobbins by 14 |
| Position rank | RB32 | RB35 | |
| Market ADP | 85.5 | 101.6 | Jones +16.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 6 |
Should I start J.K. Dobbins or Aaron Jones in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans J.K. Dobbins by 0.5 projected points (7.1 vs 6.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft J.K. Dobbins or Aaron Jones in 2026 fantasy football?
J.K. Dobbins. He projects 125.8 fantasy points with -10.8 value over replacement, vs 110.0 points and -26.6 for Aaron Jones (RB, PPR).