Nico Collins vs Zay Flowers
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Zay Flowers this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.3 projected points (15.3 vs 14.0).
Zay Flowers faces TEN, the 2nd-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Nico Collins faces DAL, the 9th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Nico Collins ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Nico Collins by 2.8 points of value over replacement (52.4 vs 49.6), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market agrees: Nico Collins goes first at ADP 19.6 vs 24.8 for Zay Flowers.
Health note: Nico Collins carries an injury flag of Questionable (Hamstring), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Nico CollinsHOU | Zay FlowersBAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | DAL | TEN | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 14.0 | 15.3 | Flowers +1.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 32) | #9 | #2 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 230.8 | 228.0 | Collins +2.8 pts |
| Points per game | 13.6 | 13.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 52.4 | 49.6 | Collins +2.8 |
| Overall rank | #32 | #36 | Collins by 4 |
| Position rank | WR10 | WR12 | |
| Market ADP | 19.6 | 24.8 | Flowers +5.2 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 2 | Rd 2 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 13 | |
| Injury flag | Questionable | None |
Should I start Nico Collins or Zay Flowers in Week 4?
Start Zay Flowers this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.3 projected points (15.3 vs 14.0).
Should I draft Nico Collins or Zay Flowers in 2026 fantasy football?
Nico Collins. He projects 230.8 fantasy points with 52.4 value over replacement, vs 228.0 points and 49.6 for Zay Flowers (WR, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.