Lil'Jordan Humphrey vs Keon Coleman
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Keon Coleman by 0.6 projected points (5.3 vs 4.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Keon Coleman faces NE, the 2nd-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Lil'Jordan Humphrey faces SF, the 18th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Lil'Jordan Humphrey ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Lil'Jordan Humphrey by 0.3 points of value over replacement (-99.7 vs -100.0), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
Health note: Lil'Jordan Humphrey carries an injury flag of Out (Coach's Decision), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN | Keon ColemanBUF | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | SF | NE | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 4.7 | 5.3 | Coleman +0.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 32) | #18 | #2 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 80.6 | 80.3 | Humphrey +0.3 pts |
| Points per game | 4.7 | 4.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -99.7 | -100.0 | Humphrey +0.3 |
| Overall rank | #199 | #200 | Humphrey by 1 |
| Position rank | WR74 | WR75 | |
| Market ADP | - | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | - | |
| Bye week | 10 | 7 | |
| Injury flag | Out | None |
Should I start Lil'Jordan Humphrey or Keon Coleman in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Keon Coleman by 0.6 projected points (5.3 vs 4.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Lil'Jordan Humphrey or Keon Coleman in 2026 fantasy football?
Lil'Jordan Humphrey. He projects 80.6 fantasy points with -99.7 value over replacement, vs 80.3 points and -100.0 for Keon Coleman (WR, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.