Ray Davis vs Keaton Mitchell
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Ray Davis by 0.6 projected points (2.9 vs 2.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Ray Davis faces LAC, the 3rd-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Keaton Mitchell faces BUF, the 29th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Ray Davis by 0.6 points of value over replacement (-91.8 vs -92.4), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Keaton Mitchell first (ADP 158.7 vs 177.1). If the model is right, Ray Davis is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Ray DavisBUF | Keaton MitchellLAC | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | LAC | BUF | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 2.9 | 2.4 | Davis +0.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 32) | #3 | #29 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 44.7 | 44.1 | Davis +0.6 pts |
| Points per game | 2.6 | 2.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -91.8 | -92.4 | Davis +0.6 |
| Overall rank | #180 | #183 | Davis by 3 |
| Position rank | RB62 | RB64 | |
| Market ADP | 177.1 | 158.7 | Davis +18.4 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 15 | Rd 14 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 7 |
Should I start Ray Davis or Keaton Mitchell in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Ray Davis by 0.6 projected points (2.9 vs 2.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Ray Davis or Keaton Mitchell in 2026 fantasy football?
Ray Davis. He projects 44.7 fantasy points with -91.8 value over replacement, vs 44.1 points and -92.4 for Keaton Mitchell (RB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.