Jalen Nailor vs KaVontae Turpin
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans KaVontae Turpin by 0.5 projected points (5.5 vs 5.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
KaVontae Turpin faces HOU, the 6th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Jalen Nailor faces KC, the 29th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Jalen Nailor ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Jalen Nailor: a clear but modest edge of 8.8 points of value over replacement (-84.5 vs -93.3).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Jalen NailorLVR | KaVontae TurpinDAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | KC | HOU | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 5.0 | 5.5 | Turpin +0.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 32) | #29 | #6 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 94.0 | 85.2 | Nailor +8.8 pts |
| Points per game | 5.5 | 5.0 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -84.5 | -93.3 | Nailor +8.8 |
| Overall rank | #163 | #184 | Nailor by 21 |
| Position rank | WR68 | WR70 | |
| Market ADP | 154.4 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | - | |
| Bye week | 13 | 14 |
Should I start Jalen Nailor or KaVontae Turpin in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans KaVontae Turpin by 0.5 projected points (5.5 vs 5.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Jalen Nailor or KaVontae Turpin in 2026 fantasy football?
Jalen Nailor. He projects 94.0 fantasy points with -84.5 value over replacement, vs 85.2 points and -93.3 for KaVontae Turpin (WR, PPR).