Dylan Sampson vs Tyjae Spears
Who should you start in Week 10? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 10
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Tyjae Spears by 0.1 projected points (4.9 vs 4.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Tyjae Spears faces JAX, the 16th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Dylan Sampson faces HOU, the 24th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Dylan Sampson ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 10, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Dylan Sampson by 4.5 points of value over replacement (-58.8 vs -63.4), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Tyjae Spears first (ADP 129.8 vs 159.6). If the model is right, Dylan Sampson is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Tyjae Spears carries an injury flag of Questionable (Knee), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Dylan SampsonCLE | Tyjae SpearsTEN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 opponent | HOU | JAX | |
| Projected Week 10 points | 4.8 | 4.9 | Spears +0.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 28) | #24 | #16 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 87.8 | 83.3 | Sampson +4.5 pts |
| Points per game | 5.2 | 4.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -58.8 | -63.4 | Sampson +4.5 |
| Overall rank | #138 | #146 | Sampson by 8 |
| Position rank | RB47 | RB50 | |
| Market ADP | 159.6 | 129.8 | Sampson +29.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 14 | Rd 11 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 9 | |
| Injury flag | None | Questionable |
Should I start Dylan Sampson or Tyjae Spears in Week 10?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Tyjae Spears by 0.1 projected points (4.9 vs 4.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Dylan Sampson or Tyjae Spears in 2026 fantasy football?
Dylan Sampson. He projects 87.8 fantasy points with -58.8 value over replacement, vs 83.3 points and -63.4 for Tyjae Spears (RB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.