Devin Neal vs Keaton Mitchell
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Devin Neal by 0.2 projected points (2.6 vs 2.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Devin Neal faces ATL, the 20th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Keaton Mitchell faces SEA, the 27th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Devin Neal by 0.5 points of value over replacement (-92.0 vs -92.4), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Devin NealNOR | Keaton MitchellLAC | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | ATL | SEA | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 2.6 | 2.4 | Neal +0.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 32) | #20 | #27 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 44.6 | 44.1 | Neal +0.5 pts |
| Points per game | 2.6 | 2.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -92.0 | -92.4 | Neal +0.5 |
| Overall rank | #180 | #182 | Neal by 2 |
| Position rank | RB65 | RB66 | |
| Market ADP | - | 158.7 | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | Rd 14 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 7 |
Should I start Devin Neal or Keaton Mitchell in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Devin Neal by 0.2 projected points (2.6 vs 2.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Devin Neal or Keaton Mitchell in 2026 fantasy football?
Devin Neal. He projects 44.6 fantasy points with -92.0 value over replacement, vs 44.1 points and -92.4 for Keaton Mitchell (RB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.