Derrick Henry vs Josh Jacobs
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
The call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Derrick Henry by 4.5 points of value over replacement (76.0 vs 71.5), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market agrees: Derrick Henry goes first at ADP 17.6 vs 30.6 for Josh Jacobs.
Health note: Josh Jacobs carries an injury flag of Questionable (Groin), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Derrick HenryBAL | Josh JacobsGNB | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 205.7 | 201.2 | Henry +4.5 pts |
| Points per game | 12.1 | 11.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 76.0 | 71.5 | Henry +4.5 |
| Overall rank | #18 | #20 | Henry by 2 |
| Position rank | RB13 | RB14 | |
| Market ADP | 17.6 | 30.6 | Jacobs +13.0 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 2 | Rd 3 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 11 | |
| Injury flag | None | Questionable |
Should I draft Derrick Henry or Josh Jacobs in 2026 fantasy football?
Derrick Henry. He projects 205.7 fantasy points with 76.0 value over replacement, vs 201.2 points and 71.5 for Josh Jacobs (RB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.