Nico Collins vs CeeDee Lamb
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
Start Nico Collins this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.8 projected points (17.5 vs 14.6).
Nico Collins faces IND, the 6th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. CeeDee Lamb faces BAL, the 17th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Nico Collins, and it isn't close: 22.9 points of value over replacement separate them (93.4 vs 70.4).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take CeeDee Lamb first (ADP 10.4 vs 19.6). If the model is right, Nico Collins is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Nico Collins carries an injury flag of Out (Hamstring), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Nico CollinsHOU | CeeDee LambDAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | IND | BAL | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 17.5 | 14.6 | Collins +2.8 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 32) | #6 | #17 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 271.8 | 248.9 | Collins +22.9 pts |
| Points per game | 16.0 | 14.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 93.4 | 70.4 | Collins +22.9 |
| Overall rank | #16 | #23 | Collins by 7 |
| Position rank | WR5 | WR6 | |
| Market ADP | 19.6 | 10.4 | Collins +9.2 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 2 | Rd 1 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 14 | |
| Injury flag | Out | None |
Should I start Nico Collins or CeeDee Lamb in Week 3?
Start Nico Collins this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.8 projected points (17.5 vs 14.6).
Should I draft Nico Collins or CeeDee Lamb in 2026 fantasy football?
Nico Collins. He projects 271.8 fantasy points with 93.4 value over replacement, vs 248.9 points and 70.4 for CeeDee Lamb (WR, PPR).