Puka Nacua vs Nico Collins
Who should you start in Week 10? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 10
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Nico Collins by 0.8 projected points (14.6 vs 13.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Nico Collins faces CLE, the 8th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Puka Nacua faces ARI, the 16th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Puka Nacua ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 10, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Puka Nacua by 1.1 points of value over replacement (57.6 vs 56.4), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market agrees: Puka Nacua goes first at ADP 3.3 vs 19.6 for Nico Collins.
Health note: Puka Nacua carries an injury flag of Out (Knee - MCL), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Puka NacuaLAR | Nico CollinsHOU | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 opponent | ARI | CLE | |
| Projected Week 10 points | 13.8 | 14.6 | Collins +0.8 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 28) | #16 | #8 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 234.7 | 233.6 | Nacua +1.1 pts |
| Points per game | 13.8 | 13.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 57.6 | 56.4 | Nacua +1.1 |
| Overall rank | #29 | #30 | Nacua by 1 |
| Position rank | WR8 | WR9 | |
| Market ADP | 3.3 | 19.6 | Collins +16.3 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 1 | Rd 2 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 8 | |
| Injury flag | Out | None |
Should I start Puka Nacua or Nico Collins in Week 10?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Nico Collins by 0.8 projected points (14.6 vs 13.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Puka Nacua or Nico Collins in 2026 fantasy football?
Puka Nacua. He projects 234.7 fantasy points with 57.6 value over replacement, vs 233.6 points and 56.4 for Nico Collins (WR, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.