Carnell Tate vs Michael Wilson
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Michael Wilson by 0.0 projected points (10.5 vs 10.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Michael Wilson faces DET, the 20th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Carnell Tate faces HOU, the 25th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Carnell Tate ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Carnell Tate: a clear but modest edge of 9.2 points of value over replacement (6.9 vs -2.3).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Michael Wilson first (ADP 76.1 vs 79.9). If the model is right, Carnell Tate is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Carnell TateTEN | Michael WilsonARI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | HOU | DET | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 10.4 | 10.5 | Even |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 30) | #25 | #20 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 185.3 | 176.1 | Tate +9.2 pts |
| Points per game | 10.9 | 10.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 6.9 | -2.3 | Tate +9.2 |
| Overall rank | #64 | #76 | Tate by 12 |
| Position rank | WR24 | WR27 | |
| Market ADP | 79.9 | 76.1 | Tate +3.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 9 | 14 |
Should I start Carnell Tate or Michael Wilson in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Michael Wilson by 0.0 projected points (10.5 vs 10.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Carnell Tate or Michael Wilson in 2026 fantasy football?
Carnell Tate. He projects 185.3 fantasy points with 6.9 value over replacement, vs 176.1 points and -2.3 for Michael Wilson (WR, PPR).