Head to head · RB · 2026
Aaron Jones vs Nick Chubb
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
The model's pick
Aaron Jones
The model takes Aaron Jones: a clear but modest edge of 11.3 points of value over replacement (-19.8 vs -31.1).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Aaron Jones | Nick Chubb | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | MIN | HOU | |
| Overall rank | #103 | #117 | Jones by 14 |
| Position rank | RB40 | RB43 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 110.0 | 98.6 | Jones +11.3 pts |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -19.8 | -31.1 | Jones +11.3 |
| Market ADP | 90.9 | N/A |
Should I draft Aaron Jones or Nick Chubb in 2026 fantasy football?
Aaron Jones. He projects 110.0 fantasy points with -19.8 value over replacement, vs 98.6 points and -31.1 for Nick Chubb (RB, PPR).