Keaton Mitchell vs Tyler Allgeier
Who should you start in Week 6? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 6
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Tyler Allgeier by 0.4 projected points (6.6 vs 6.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Tyler Allgeier faces LA, the 22nd-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Keaton Mitchell faces KC, the 28th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Keaton Mitchell ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 6, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Keaton Mitchell by 1.0 points of value over replacement (-40.3 vs -41.3), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Tyler Allgeier first (ADP 154.9 vs 158.7). If the model is right, Keaton Mitchell is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Keaton MitchellLAC | Tyler AllgeierARI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 opponent | KC | LA | |
| Projected Week 6 points | 6.2 | 6.6 | Allgeier +0.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 28) | #28 | #22 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 117.4 | 116.4 | Mitchell +1.0 pts |
| Points per game | 6.9 | 6.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -40.3 | -41.3 | Mitchell +1.0 |
| Overall rank | #121 | #122 | Mitchell by 1 |
| Position rank | RB44 | RB45 | |
| Market ADP | 158.7 | 154.9 | Mitchell +3.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 14 | Rd 13 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 14 |
Should I start Keaton Mitchell or Tyler Allgeier in Week 6?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Tyler Allgeier by 0.4 projected points (6.6 vs 6.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Keaton Mitchell or Tyler Allgeier in 2026 fantasy football?
Keaton Mitchell. He projects 117.4 fantasy points with -40.3 value over replacement, vs 116.4 points and -41.3 for Tyler Allgeier (RB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.