Jonah Coleman vs Kaelon Black
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jonah Coleman by 0.5 projected points (3.2 vs 2.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Jonah Coleman faces LAC, the 16th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Kaelon Black faces SEA, the 19th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Jonah Coleman: a clear but modest edge of 6.5 points of value over replacement (-83.1 vs -89.6).
The draft market agrees: Jonah Coleman goes first at ADP 155.6 vs 166.2 for Kaelon Black.
Health note: Jonah Coleman carries an injury flag of IR (Ankle), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Jonah ColemanDEN | Kaelon BlackSFO | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | LAC | SEA | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 3.2 | 2.7 | Coleman +0.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 30) | #16 | #19 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 53.5 | 47.0 | Coleman +6.5 pts |
| Points per game | 3.1 | 2.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -83.1 | -89.6 | Coleman +6.5 |
| Overall rank | #158 | #165 | Coleman by 7 |
| Position rank | RB51 | RB54 | |
| Market ADP | 155.6 | 166.2 | Black +10.6 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | Rd 14 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 8 | |
| Injury flag | IR | None |
Should I start Jonah Coleman or Kaelon Black in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jonah Coleman by 0.5 projected points (3.2 vs 2.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Jonah Coleman or Kaelon Black in 2026 fantasy football?
Jonah Coleman. He projects 53.5 fantasy points with -83.1 value over replacement, vs 47.0 points and -89.6 for Kaelon Black (RB, PPR).