Tommy Tremble vs Jake Ferguson
Who should you start in Week 10? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 10
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jake Ferguson by 0.0 projected points (6.4 vs 6.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Jake Ferguson faces SF, the 2nd-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Tommy Tremble faces NO, the 10th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Tommy Tremble ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 10, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Tommy Tremble: a clear but modest edge of 7.3 points of value over replacement (-72.7 vs -80.0).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
Health note: Jake Ferguson carries an injury flag of Out (Knee), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Tommy TrembleCAR | Jake FergusonDAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 opponent | NO | SF | |
| Projected Week 10 points | 6.4 | 6.4 | Even |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 28) | #10 | #2 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 104.4 | 97.1 | Tremble +7.3 pts |
| Points per game | 6.1 | 5.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -72.7 | -80.0 | Tremble +7.3 |
| Overall rank | #159 | #164 | Tremble by 5 |
| Position rank | TE29 | TE32 | |
| Market ADP | - | 137.4 | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | Rd 12 | |
| Bye week | 5 | 14 | |
| Injury flag | None | Out |
Should I start Tommy Tremble or Jake Ferguson in Week 10?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jake Ferguson by 0.0 projected points (6.4 vs 6.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Tommy Tremble or Jake Ferguson in 2026 fantasy football?
Tommy Tremble. He projects 104.4 fantasy points with -72.7 value over replacement, vs 97.1 points and -80.0 for Jake Ferguson (TE, PPR).