Tee Higgins vs Emeka Egbuka
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Emeka Egbuka by 0.5 projected points (12.9 vs 12.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Emeka Egbuka faces DAL, the 3rd-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Tee Higgins faces MIA, the 14th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Tee Higgins ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Tee Higgins: a clear but modest edge of 7.8 points of value over replacement (28.4 vs 20.5).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Emeka Egbuka first (ADP 35.0 vs 37.1). If the model is right, Tee Higgins is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Tee HigginsCIN | Emeka EgbukaTAM | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | MIA | DAL | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 12.5 | 12.9 | Egbuka +0.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 30) | #14 | #3 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 206.8 | 199.0 | Higgins +7.8 pts |
| Points per game | 12.2 | 11.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 28.4 | 20.5 | Higgins +7.8 |
| Overall rank | #46 | #51 | Higgins by 5 |
| Position rank | WR16 | WR18 | |
| Market ADP | 37.1 | 35.0 | Higgins +2.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 4 | Rd 3 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 10 |
Should I start Tee Higgins or Emeka Egbuka in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Emeka Egbuka by 0.5 projected points (12.9 vs 12.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Tee Higgins or Emeka Egbuka in 2026 fantasy football?
Tee Higgins. He projects 206.8 fantasy points with 28.4 value over replacement, vs 199.0 points and 20.5 for Emeka Egbuka (WR, PPR).