Tony Pollard vs David Montgomery
Who should you start in Week 6? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 6
This week is a coin flip. The model leans David Montgomery by 0.6 projected points (10.2 vs 9.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
David Montgomery faces JAX, the 10th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Tony Pollard faces IND, the 27th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Tony Pollard ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 6, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Tony Pollard: a clear but modest edge of 7.6 points of value over replacement (15.7 vs 8.1).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take David Montgomery first (ADP 52.0 vs 69.7). If the model is right, Tony Pollard is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: David Montgomery carries an injury flag of Out (Groin), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Tony PollardTEN | David MontgomeryHOU | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 opponent | IND | JAX | |
| Projected Week 6 points | 9.6 | 10.2 | Montgomery +0.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 28) | #27 | #10 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 175.9 | 168.3 | Pollard +7.6 pts |
| Points per game | 10.3 | 9.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 15.7 | 8.1 | Pollard +7.6 |
| Overall rank | #54 | #60 | Pollard by 6 |
| Position rank | RB26 | RB28 | |
| Market ADP | 69.7 | 52.0 | Pollard +17.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 6 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 9 | 8 | |
| Injury flag | None | Out |
Should I start Tony Pollard or David Montgomery in Week 6?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans David Montgomery by 0.6 projected points (10.2 vs 9.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Tony Pollard or David Montgomery in 2026 fantasy football?
Tony Pollard. He projects 175.9 fantasy points with 15.7 value over replacement, vs 168.3 points and 8.1 for David Montgomery (RB, PPR).