J.K. Dobbins vs David Montgomery
Who should you start in Week 6? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 6
This week is a coin flip. The model leans J.K. Dobbins by 0.2 projected points (9.7 vs 9.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
J.K. Dobbins faces SEA, the 8th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. David Montgomery faces JAX, the 10th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans J.K. Dobbins by 1.9 points of value over replacement (0.0 vs -1.9), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take David Montgomery first (ADP 52.0 vs 85.5). If the model is right, J.K. Dobbins is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: David Montgomery carries an injury flag of Doubtful (Groin), which is already reflected in his projection.
| J.K. DobbinsDEN | David MontgomeryHOU | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 opponent | SEA | JAX | |
| Projected Week 6 points | 9.7 | 9.5 | Dobbins +0.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 28) | #8 | #10 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 157.7 | 155.8 | Dobbins +1.9 pts |
| Points per game | 9.3 | 9.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 0.0 | -1.9 | Dobbins +1.9 |
| Overall rank | #70 | #74 | Dobbins by 4 |
| Position rank | RB30 | RB32 | |
| Market ADP | 85.5 | 52.0 | Dobbins +33.5 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 8 | |
| Injury flag | None | Doubtful |
Should I start J.K. Dobbins or David Montgomery in Week 6?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans J.K. Dobbins by 0.2 projected points (9.7 vs 9.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft J.K. Dobbins or David Montgomery in 2026 fantasy football?
J.K. Dobbins. He projects 157.7 fantasy points with 0.0 value over replacement, vs 155.8 points and -1.9 for David Montgomery (RB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.