Nick Chubb vs Brashard Smith
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Nick Chubb by 0.0 projected points (2.7 vs 2.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Nick Chubb faces IND, the 9th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Brashard Smith faces MIA, the 8th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Nick Chubb by 0.3 points of value over replacement (-93.3 vs -93.7), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Nick ChubbHOU | Brashard SmithKAN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | IND | MIA | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 2.7 | 2.7 | Even |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 32) | #9 | #8 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 43.2 | 42.9 | Chubb +0.3 pts |
| Points per game | 2.5 | 2.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -93.3 | -93.7 | Chubb +0.3 |
| Overall rank | #186 | #188 | Chubb by 2 |
| Position rank | RB66 | RB67 | |
| Market ADP | - | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | - | |
| Bye week | 8 | 5 |
Should I start Nick Chubb or Brashard Smith in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Nick Chubb by 0.0 projected points (2.7 vs 2.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Nick Chubb or Brashard Smith in 2026 fantasy football?
Nick Chubb. He projects 43.2 fantasy points with -93.3 value over replacement, vs 42.9 points and -93.7 for Brashard Smith (RB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.