Keaton Mitchell vs Brashard Smith
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Brashard Smith by 0.3 projected points (2.7 vs 2.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Brashard Smith faces MIA, the 8th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Keaton Mitchell faces BUF, the 29th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Keaton Mitchell ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 3, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Keaton Mitchell by 1.2 points of value over replacement (-92.4 vs -93.7), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Keaton MitchellLAC | Brashard SmithKAN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | BUF | MIA | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 2.4 | 2.7 | Smith +0.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 32) | #29 | #8 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 44.1 | 42.9 | Mitchell +1.2 pts |
| Points per game | 2.6 | 2.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -92.4 | -93.7 | Mitchell +1.2 |
| Overall rank | #183 | #188 | Mitchell by 5 |
| Position rank | RB64 | RB67 | |
| Market ADP | 158.7 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 14 | - | |
| Bye week | 7 | 5 |
Should I start Keaton Mitchell or Brashard Smith in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Brashard Smith by 0.3 projected points (2.7 vs 2.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Keaton Mitchell or Brashard Smith in 2026 fantasy football?
Keaton Mitchell. He projects 44.1 fantasy points with -92.4 value over replacement, vs 42.9 points and -93.7 for Brashard Smith (RB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.